We seem to be stuck in a doom-loop of tax and spend

That means the two bills I introduced – one to tax incinerated waste and stop any more waste burners being built, particularly in Westbury, and another to establish a new kind of retirement village lease along the lines of the highly successful New Zealand model – technically fall.

I intend to reintroduce both in the new session.

I had wondered if this tax-loving chancellor might take a shine to my incineration tax proposal, but apparently not.

There’s still a chance my Retirement Occupancy Lease concept could be incorporated into the government’s Commonhold and Leasehold Reform legislation.

I’ll keep pushing.

After prorogation comes the King’s Speech on 13 May, setting out the government’s new legislative programme.

Rumour has it that Sir Keir will reshuffle his Cabinet around the same time.

Both should reboot his 2024 message on going for growth.

That’s what was promised at the last election: a ‘fully costed, fully funded plan’ to grow the economy.

His government’s top priority, he said, would be growth.

Two autumn budgets and one spring statement have come and gone, leaving behind little more than rising unemployment, sticky inflation, the highest tax burden since the war, and not one green shoot of growth to be seen.

I suspect we’ll come to see these years as a missed opportunity between two great inflationary spikes to go for growth.

The first bout of inflation was triggered by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The second one is being triggered by Trump’s war against Iran.

We are not as directly affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as we were by Russian energy being suddenly cut off.

But the longer the Strait remains closed, the higher prices will go.

It is already too late to prevent a significant uptick.

Yet it started off quite well.

When Sir Keir told us two years ago that he was going for growth we already had the fastest growing economy in the G7.

Inflation was falling.

Unemployment was low.

Then we got stuck in a doom loop of rising taxes, suppressing growth without cutting spending, thereby necessitating even higher taxes.

So, Rachel Reeves, or her successor, will likely be back for more at this year’s budget.

And so we carry on until the IMF bails us out.

A bit like 1976.

A government that is serious about growth must make it happen – through fiscal incentives, actual investment rather than just spending, and by getting a grip on public expenditure.

Sir Keir can’t do that because his backbenchers won’t let him, as we’ve seen already over his mild attempts to curb spiralling welfare.

The upcoming King’s Speech and any reshuffle is an opportunity to break the doom loop.

Let’s hope it’s seized.